Australian property overvalued?
The 'Property bubble' has raised its ugly head yet again in media reporting of the Australian residential property market. I vowed last year not to comment on it again in a long time however I feel I need to address the subject - or rather, let other property experts give their opinion of the whole 'property bubble' scenario.
If I got $1 for every time I read or heard about the looming burst of the property bubble in Australia by the media in the last 6 months then I wouldn't be sitting here writing this ...
The new year and the release of 2013 property stats showing very strong growth in Sydney house prices, seems to have fired up everyone in the media again on this subject.
I'm not going to repeat all the figures, facts, and reasons I've previously used to back my opinion of no bursting of any bubble - whether property or otherwise.
Instead, here are some thoughts about whether Australian property prices are overvalued and a property bubble burst is imminent or not from widely respected and prolific Australian property analysts and researchers:
Hannah's Tip of the Week
Landlord Protection Insurance
... can be purchased by investors along with their contents insurance.
Landlord Protection Insurance covers loss of rent and malicious damage by tenants etc.
Cost point: approx. $350 -$600 p.a.
Have you booked your November holiday??
Trekking in Nepal? Europe's magnificent palaces? Indian summer in the USA? Xmas shopping in Hong Kong? Relaxing in a Fijian tropical paradise? November 2014 is the ideal time for CBD residents and workers to take a pre-Xmas holiday...
Why?
G20, held on November 15-16, is the reason. Already CBD residents are being warned that it definitely WON'T be 'business as usual' in Brisbane during mid-November, where the world's most powerful leaders will congregate in our beautiful river city for the much anticipated G20 Summit. A staggering 7,000 people will descend on Brisbane for this event alone - roughly 4,000 delegates and 3,000 media. Further world leaders from industry and business are expected to attend other events and meetings in Brisbane and regional Queensland over the months leading up to G20.
This will really put Brisbane in world spotlight for hopefully all the RIGHT reasons J
But it's not just the residents, it's also the workers, as the CBD's financial/business will also be effected to some degree.
How will it affect me?
You will have the once-in-a-lifetime chance to play 'spot the world leader' in Brisbane, or try getting your own selfie with one of them (most likely their whole security contingency).
Residents: On a day-to-day living level there will be definitely restrictions of movement in and around the CBD and Southbank (see exclusion zone highlighting restricted residents' movement in the map below). As Barack Obama will be housed at the Stamford Plaza this area is expected to experience considerable disruptions.
Workers: If you work in the CBD business hub (especially Waterfront Place) or at Southbank near the Convention Centre then expect not only transport delays and certain restrictions to movement (see map below), but also whole companies to be shutting up shop for the week starting November 10. The Commonwealth Bank, St George Bank, KPMG, BDO, AMP, Minter Ellison and Thiess are already considering their options for staff over this period - some have indicated that they will try to organise people to work from home or suggest staff take part of their annual leave.
Hannah: For me personally, I'll be open for business as usual but will also have my own emergency Plan B on hand (see my tips below).
Hannah's tips to surviving G20
a) Get in with a great early-bird holiday deal to one of the above-mentioned locations, or
b) Buy lots of home-movies and frozen meals to fill in those hours locked up in your apartment, or
c) Scratch up on your German, French, Italian, Spanish, Chinese, Japanese, Russian etc. ... for helping out all those lost people within the world leaders' entourage.
d) Be prepared!
(Source: Courier Mail, Louise Moeller - HS Brisbane Property marketing)
Hannah's Tip of the Week
Furniture Packages last on average 5- 7 years. Furnished apartments can achieve, in general, a $80 – $100 higher rental return, and the furniture can be depreciated.
Experts upbeat about Brisbane / January in the CBD
2014 is now one month old but we still have another 11 months left to see if the predictions of seasonal property experts will hold true.
Brisbane's CBD in January
The year got off to a bang with strong buyer enquiry during the first week of the new year. This dropped off slightly mid-month but with Australia Day and school holiday end looming, it again picked up. Traditionally most Aussies spend Australia Day at the beach or with friends celebrating, so I was surprised to see 'Summer Sale'-type interest in our Open House inspections on the Saturday of the long weekend. Overall, investors - from overseas and interstate - have been particularly active.
Action has replaced 'research and wait', with buyer interest translating into actual sales - a few new listings were snapped up within days, and some other long-term listings found new owners too.
Sellers did not want to be outdone with various new listings and re-listings of properties that had been withdrawn from the market previously, streaming in.
Prices appear to be gradually moving up with buyers realising they have to be prepared to pay more for good properties in good locations.
It's been a dynamic start to the CBD in 2014 by both sellers and buyers ... let's see how the rest of the year shapes up, and if the experts are right ...
Experts upbeat about Brisbane
Early January some of the industry's national property experts gave their forecasts for 2014, and here are a few interesting excerpts*:
Terry Ryder, a prolific property commentator, is never afraid to speak his mind - loud and clear. He expects "a little bit more sanity" in the 2014 property market compared to last year.
"Sydney and Melbourne are experiencing an auction frenzy, which occurs every three or four years, but things will settle down a bit," he said. "Next year there will be 5%-10% growth in those cities but it will be more evenly spread across the middle and outer-ring suburbs."
According to Ryder, the big improver in the property market is set to be Brisbane "which is only just starting to gather momentum".
"Brisbane is behind Sydney and Melbourne after being adversely affected by the devastating floods of 2011 and the job losses experienced by 1,500 public servants after the election of the Newman government in March 2012.
"Brisbane is only just now starting to take off and I see much stronger growth there – perhaps over 10%."
Buyer's agent, Catherine Cashmore, advises to caution with the star performer in 2013 property price growth, Sydney.
"Investors tend to be sensitive to interest rate changes, however, in Sydney, a number of factors have combined to make 'the perfect storm' leading into 2014: strong interest from overseas buyers, SMSFs feeding into a limited pool of residential real estate, buyers looking for a better return on their savings, coupled with a severe shortage of supply.
"It is projected we'll see interest rates rise through the course of next year and, although not immediately, this will take some heat out the market. This will be more the case in Melbourne before we see the effects in Sydney.
"Brisbane is still playing catch up and, with lower price options, it will likely continue its upward trajectory."
Peter Wargent, best-selling author and property buyer, is far more conservative about the national property market and recommends waiting to see how unemployment, mining resource industry and interest rates play out in 2014.
Nevertheless he has some positive words about Sydney (as opposed to above) and Brisbane in the 2014 national property scenario :
"Sydney is the clear standout. There are likely challenges ahead for Canberra, but Brisbane could be the star."
Who's right?
January was a great start but there are still another 11 months to go - so I'll tell you who was right ... after Xmas ...
(Source: Property Observer magazine; Louise Moeller - HS Brisbane Property marketing)