Brexit opens new doors for Australian property market?
Recent news to shock the global market is that of June 23, 2016 referendum whereby British voters made the shocking decision to exit the European Union – meanwhile coining ‘Brexit’ as the latest catchphrase. The referendum roiled global markets, including currencies, causing the British pound to fall to its lowest level in decades.
Sure, this controversial decision has taken many people by surprise but the real question on everyone’s lips is: How will this impact Australia? While we do not have a crystal ball, given many of the latest reputable reports we can help offer a sneak peek into what this could potentially mean for the real estate industry here Down under – and it is not bad at all.
First, here is a glimpse of the immediate effects we have witnessed:
- The British pound drops by a record -3.4805% and by Tuesday was hovering at a roughly 30-year low at $1.3342 (1)
- The Euro dropped by a whopping -1.1335%
- Billions of dollars were wiped off the value of Australia’s stock exchange (2)
Now, let us remember, this all happened in the initial few days after Brexit was confirmed. Since then we have seen the Euro bounce back. But while this may be happening now, the real posing question is: What will the effects be long-term?
To help answer that question, we refer to a recent www.realestate.com.au article, which highlights several ways in which Brexit might actually boost help boost the Australian property market:
The attractive alternative
Britain’s recent decision has created a lot of uncertainty in the European Union, and in Britain. This means Australia now looks even more attractive in comparison to Europe and thus opens the potential for an entire new breed of international property investors.
The safe option
Australia is going to be seen as increasingly safe, particularly compared to this volatile environment - especially given that London is one of the main destinations for Asian property buyers. Again, this uncertainty may lead them to look at other destinations such as Australia.
The new investment strategy
Share market volatility is likely too – we may see a flight to property because of this as people moving their investment strategy; shunning stocks in favour of bricks and mortar
The population growth
In a separate SMH article, research from Macquarie economic analyst, James McIntyre, explores another potential benefit for economic activity will be all thanks to faster population growth.
James believes that with the population expanding near its slowest pace in a decade, such an acceleration, alongside further expected cuts in interest rates, could provide support to the housing market.
McIntyre feels the prospect of stronger population growth, as a result of Brexit, alongside further interest rate cuts, “could boost housing demand, and confound some of the more aggressive expectations for negative housing spill-overs”.
Seems he is not the only one with this positive mindset post Brexit. The head of Real Estate in one of the big national industry players this week was quoted by news.com.au as having said:
“There is going to be a number of positives for Australian property specifically… while you have that upheaval and lack of surety in the UK market they are going to look for other opportunities.
“Any investor will look for longer term or medium to longer term stability and I don’t see how London is going to provide that to investors."
He concluded by saying the uncertainty of Brexit would bode well for global investment into Australian real estate and could draw more international investors to buy residential property in Australia.
All up, there is no denying that the entire ‘so-called’ Brexit saga will bring its shares of highs and lows over the coming months – maybe even years. However, from where we stand here in Australia, seems we may be able to expect more of the highs than the lows, which is actually quite exciting for our economy.
From a sudden influx of new money coming our way as investors start looking for somewhere new and not so volatile, to an overall boost to our population, suggesting a very positive nationwide push in property prices might be just around the corner.
To ride the Brexit wave Down under, contact one of our property specialists and find out how you can make the most of what lies ahead. For a one-on-one consultation call 0419 782 133.
What would happen if negative gearing was abolished?
Each Election Day comes with a list of proposed changes from various political parties. That is not anything new. What is new, however, are the proposed changes to negative gearing and how the election on Saturday is shaping up to be one very important day for the real estate industry – especially if negative gearing is abolished.
Some experts are saying that house values could drop by as much as 20 per cent if negative gearing is taken away. That kind of drop and the ramifications it would carry throughout the economy is unimaginable.
This is a sticky situation and one we would prefer not to speculate on, so let us take a look at the facts…
In a recent state-wide survey by peak body, Real Estate Institute of Queensland (REIQ), a massive 79 per cent of investors said they will abandon property as an investment strategy if Labor’s negative gearing changes were brought in.
That is over three quarters of investors who are prepared to look for a new investment strategy should the new proposed negative gearing changes see the light of day.
Principal of HS Brisbane Property, Hannah Schuhmann believes that the proposed changes to negative gearing would be catastrophic for the Queensland property market.
“There has been a lot of speculation surrounding Labor’s plans to abolish negative gearing and what kind of negative impact this will have on the real estate industry as a whole, and unfortunately recent findings from the latest REI survey only provide further confirmation of this,” said Schuhmann.
REIQ Chairman Rob Honeycombe agrees with Schuhmann, stating in a recent press release that changes to negative gearing would be disastrous for the Queensland property market.
“We now know for a fact that 79 per cent of respondents will get out of property and find an alternative investment strategy that works more effectively and yields a better return,” he said.
“That will have a crippling effect on house values and on the rental market, where the private rental market plays such a critical role in keeping rents affordable,” he said.
Mr Honeycombe said the survey also indicates that removing negative gearing would crush rental affordability as investors sold their assets and adopted a new investment strategy – especially here in Queensland, given that investors provide rental accommodation for about a third of Queenslanders.
Now let us take a look at how it might affect the value of property. The Grattan Institute’s report also suggested that putting such restraints on negative gearing could potentially wipe two per cent off housing values.
What does two per cent mean in the scheme of things? Well, based on CoreLogic’s estimate that residential real estate in Australia is valued at about $6 trillion then one can safely assume this two per cent would represent around $130 billion in value which would be instantly removed.
And that is just the immediate effect. Imagine the long term impact on the broader economy and how this would the entire country as a whole? It would be far reaching - from the government right through to all those industries that work simultaneously with investors and property professionals, from finance consultants and institutes to building inspectors, etc. – the list goes on.
Property Council chief executive, Ken Morrison, says the changes would have a huge impact on the economy.
“Almost two million Australians own an investment property and almost 1.2 million negative gear. This is an industry that is vital to our economy; 1.1 million Australians rely on property for their jobs and property generates one-ninth of Australia’s GDP,” he tells The Australian.
Plus, then you have the government and how this change would affect revenue such as stamp duty and GST.
“The State Government would lose a significant amount of revenue from stamp duty if people’s house values fell by two per cent, and the Grattan Institute is being very conservative with its estimate of two per cent,” said Honeycombe.
“How does the State Government feel about this massive loss to revenue? Recently released ABS data reveals that revenue from property taxes at a local and state level have increased 70 per cent over the past nine years – representing an increase of $1.6 billion in council rates and $1 billion in stamp duty over the past nine years.
“Negative gearing will decimate those tax revenues, adding further stress to local council and State Government budgets. Regional Queensland councils can ill-afford this enormous hole in their budgets.”
In addition to a significant loss in stamp duty revenue, the government would also lose out on a range of taxes paid by associated service providers, such as the GST paid by the financial advisor, the accountant, and the real estate agent who facilitated the transactions.
“Negative gearing plays an important role in the Queensland property market and any changes to it will be detrimental,” he said.
Whether you are an investor, tenant or owner-occupier, when it comes to popping your vote in the ballot box this Saturday think about how it may affect you now, and in the long term.
10 tips to avoid falling victim to real estate fraud
We live in a world where technology has become so advanced and information is so readily available… from online shopping to the ability to be able to even make payment transactions using a smart phone.
So it makes sense that we should have passwords for everything – phones, bank accounts, email, online shopping accounts. You name it! All in an effort to help us add that extra later of securityto our most private information. In fact, extreme anti-fraud measures have just become part of everyday life.
How many times have you received that dodgy email congratulating you of that amazing win-fall? Or that text message from a reliable source (maybe your bank) asking you to casually update all of your personal details? Fraud in the twenty-first century comes in all shapes and sizes – some obvious and some seemingly quite legit – which is the scary part!
What is worse is that this sort of thing is happening more and more. But what most don’t realise is that fraudsters are even trying their hand at real estate transactions. Meaning now, more than ever, property buyers have to be super vigilant when it comes to their transactions in an ongoing effort not to fall victim to real estate fraud.
Here at HS Brisbane Property, we too have dealt with an attempted fraudulent transaction first hand, which we identified and took the correct steps to stop.
Thankfully, there are measures that buyers can take to help reduce the risk of real estate fraud. To help shed some light on these, here are our Top 10 Tips to help keep buyers protected from potential real estate fraudsters:
1. Set up passwords and/or secret questions that will confirm your identity when dealing with your property manager/agent.
2. Contact your property manager and/or real estate agent and check that they have your current and correct contact details on file.
3. Provide copies of your ‘identification’ details when engaging your property manager, so agents are able to compare your details with fraudulent documents that may be presented later.
4. Ask your property manager, real estate agent and/or conveyancer how they intend to identify the true owner of the land title they are selling or dealing with? Do they complete a 100-point check and comply with Landgate’s Verification of Identity Practice?
5. Ensure your property manager and/or agent has a process in place to verify any requests to change your contact details by sending notifications to both the old and new addresses - both physical and electronic.
6. Protect your personal information and prevent identity theft by using secured mailboxes for mail deliveries and shredding or burning letters before disposing of them.
7. Be wary of handing over personal/financial information to third parties via phone or email.
8. Regularly change all passwords, especially your email and banking accounts and never click on any links contained in emails from unknown sources.
9. Ensure property managers and/or agents have your correct signature on file and that they check signed documents to confirm they match.
10. Install anti-virus/anti-malware software on your computer and keep it up-to-date.
Real estate fraud is happening and it is happening right here in Brisbane. If you are buying or selling a property, particularly where the other party is located internationally it is vital that you work with an agent that you can trust, and one that has all the right anti-fraud measures in place.
Here at HSBP, we have strict identification processes that we adhere to and all of our expert staff are properly trained and instructed in what to do when a request to change contact details are made, especially if the owner is based overseas.
To contact the team and set up an appointment, call 0419 782 133.
Property market on the up thanks to new student visa policy
The government recently announced that in just a couple of weeks, on 1 July 2016, there will be a series of significant changes being implemented into Australia’s student visa programme – starting with the fact that there will now only be one visa class, subclass 500.
The new programme is set to see much more relaxed immigration risk assessment guidelines. So relaxed the changes should introduce a much more streamlined process whereby three quarters of applications will be waved through in less than one month.
Meaning that from July 1, International students with the requisite funds or income and English language skills will be able to apply for the new visa; this includes Primary School student applicants (from the age six or above) and their guardians or family members.
These new changes will potentially result in a massive increase in the number of Primary School age Chinese students and their guardians, bringing with it a huge boost to Brisbane’s property market.
How so? Let us take a look at the facts, as per the latest ABS figures:
THE FACTS
- 59 percent of permanent settlers on Australian soil hailed from Asia in the year to April.
- Lower dollar drives tourist and other short-term arrivals to record highs, with 7.69 million short-term arrivals in the past year indicating a nine per cent increase since April 2015.
- Visitors from China, Taiwan and Hong Kong up by 21.2 per cent over the past year.
- Most short-term arrivals come for holidays (3.79 million), but more than two million now cite their main reason for travel as being visiting friends and family, thereby reinforcing the Asian connections.
- 489,900 education arrivals over the past year alone – that is a huge 17 per cent increase!
And thanks to the streamlining of visa rules from 1 July 2016 the number of international students will likely begin to flow more freely. It's a trend that is being reflected right across Australia, including Brisbane, with the number of visitors from China, Taiwan and Hong Kong continuing to multiply at a record pace.
Whether you are for or against the government’s new streamlining of entry rules for international students, in terms of real estate, experts anticipate the change will boost our property market – especially when it comes to apartments.
Many saying that the soon-to-be record boom of international students will add up to a higher permanent residency intake – words every investor wants to hear, especially those with CBD apartments located near schools, colleges and universities, as well as other highly sought after education and training facilities.
Need help sourcing the right Brisbane property located near the best universities and with the potential for a strong growth? We can help! Call the HSBP team on 0419 782 133 to set up an appointment and discuss the options available.
Brisbane property market records 5.5% price growth for 2016 (already)
We may only be five months into 2016 but sit tight folks because the 2016 June Market report has just been released and the numbers are proving that there is a lot for Brisbane buyers and investors to get excited about as we enter the new financial year – a massive 5.5 per cent worth of excitement to be exact!
That is right, the current CoreLogic RP Data’s Housing Market and Economic Update report shows that Brisbane dwelling prices have gained 5.5 per cent growth, jumping a massive 1.8 per cent in February 2016 alone. This is a significant increase. Especially when you compare it to Sydney’s 0.5 per cent during that same period.
With reports showing that Brisbane is well and truly starting to give its southern counterparts a run for their money, it’s clear that the Brisbane real estate market is not slowing down any time soon.
And, as history would have it, whenever there is a boom in Sydney or Melbourne, the Brisbane market follows suit with an upward sweep not too far in the shadows… and it seems that all the data reports to date have revealed that is exactly what is happening right now.
However, it’s not just data reports that are showing good signs ahead for Brisbane CBD property. Seems the experts are on board too – with expectations high, many are saying that Brisbane is gearing up for a solid finish to 2016.
This latest 5.5 per cent price growth is music to the ears of Australian investors and has really confirmed that the city of Brisbane is one to watch. This alone, has ensured it is well and truly on the radar for many new potential buyers – locally and interstate.
While we are on the topic of interstate buyers, we can also throw comparable affordability into the mix of reasons as to why Brisbane is well and truly on the rise. After all, given that we are starting to see many Melbourne and Sydney buyers priced out of their own market, it is no surprise why the Brisbane CBD has become even more attractive than ever before to interstate and overseas investors.
Then you throw in low interest rates, population growth and a heap of amazing new CBD infrastructure on the cards and you have yourself a city that is bursting with potential – and one that more and more buyers seemingly want a piece of.
Thankfully, here at HSBP we know Brisbane all too well and can offer a sound understanding of the local property market. So, if you too want a piece of the action in a city that is on every experts’ lips and at the peak of every data report, you need to get in touch with our expert team.
To book a private one-on-one consult, contact us on 0419 782 133.