Get set for the arrival! Asset-rich Sydneysiders are moving north
South-east Queensland is set to to benefit from a new substantial wave of interstate migration, reports the ABC.
The Macquarie Bank research predicts over the next three years 130,000 people will move from Sydney to Brisbane and south-east Queensland with the main drawcard for the move being housing prices plus the added bonus of good job prospects. Job creation is on the rise and house prices in Sydney are nearly double that of other capital cities.
Macquarie noted that in similar circumstances in the mid-1980’s and mid-2000’s an average of 134,000 people left NSW. Sydney didn’t feel the loss of this shift, they actually had a net gain of 330,000 due to natural growth and overseas immigration.
The net figure Macquarie is predicting isn’t the main benefit for south-east Queensland; it’s the fact the people that are moving are asset-rich due to the wealth that has been built in Sydney over recent years within the property market.
The move is set to create a substantial shift in wealth to the tune of $8.1 billion, the highest transfer among all capital cities. The bulk of this figure would come from NSW migration (approx. $7.3 billion).
Melbourne is the only other city that is predicted to benefit, with all other capital cities predicting a loss.
|
Market |
Median house price (2017) |
Population movement |
Wealth transfer |
|
Sydney |
$1,111,124 |
133,833 (net loss) |
$7.3bn (net loss) |
|
Melbourne |
$847,432 |
11,583 (net gain) |
$600m (net gain) |
|
Brisbane & SE Qld |
$517,539 |
167,444 (net gain) |
$8.1bn (net gain) |
|
Adelaide |
$463,712 |
14,251 (net loss) |
$500m (net loss) |
|
Perth |
$491,525 |
4,197 (net loss) |
$100m (net loss) |
|
Canberra |
$621,804 |
6,152 (net loss) |
$500m (net loss) |
|
Hobart |
$447,604 |
11,242 (net loss) |
$200m (net loss) |
|
Darwin |
$549,523 |
9,059 (net loss) |
$100m (net loss) |
Source: ABS, Macquarie Private Wealth
This $8.1 billion figure represents about a quarter of the Brisbane property market annual turnover, but in contrast, it would be a relatively small drain on the Sydney market; equating to around 10 per cent. Macquarie predicts a migration of this scale would be of great benefit to the Brisbane apartment market and is likely to increase property prices.
The Queensland Government benefit would also benefit in the form of transfer duty of around $600 million, which is around 20 per cent of the duty that was produced last year.
Hannah Schuhmann of HS Brisbane Property says the property market is extremely difficult to time, and believes the window of opportunity to purchase at the current great value-for-money prices is narrowing. When the market goes it goes!