The truth about apartment oversupply
Earlier this month, Peter Switzer wrote an article on www.switzer.com.au with the title, “Could apartment oversupply KO banks and the economy?” Seems it was just a catchy headline to drive attention because once you read between the lines, the answer is a very obvious no; with Peter having more good, than bad, to say when it comes to the current Australian economy. Then why all the negativity?
According to Peter, the latest ‘supposed’ concerns relating to apartment oversupply have been linked to a ‘bank balance sheet’ problem.
He writes, “Alarmist doomsday merchants are feeding the media about all manner of problems, with the latest linking an apartment oversupply to a bank balance sheet problem.
“A few weeks back it was apartments causing a recession but all my really smart economics experts put that as a really lower order risk.”
This poses the question: If it is considered low risk, then why is everyone (mainly the media) making such a big song and dance about it?
There was also the recent editorial in The Australian, whereby David Uren wrote: “The Reserve Bank has warned that the massive number of new apartment blocks approaching completion could send some of their developers broke and leave the banks nursing big losses.”
Again, more negativity. Like Switzer said though, the keyword in the above statement is ‘could’.
Seems these days there are lots of people writing on what ‘could’ and ‘might’ be. Today, rather than focus on what ‘we do not’ know, let us look at ‘what we do’. The facts! That being said, here are 10 impressive facts about the current Australian economy, as reported by Switzer:
- Business confidence: rose from +5.6 points to +5.9 points and the long-term average is +5.8.
- Business conditions: rose from +6.8 points to 7.7 points in June and the long-term average is +4.8 points.
- Consumer confidence: The Westpac/Melbourne Institute survey of consumer sentiment rose by 1.1% in October to 102.4. The confidence index is up 4.7% on a year ago. The survey was conducted between October 3 and October 6.
- The March economic growth number was 1.1%, taking annual growth to 3.1%.
- June quarter 3.3% — 100 quarters of no recession!
- Growth is now the fastest in three and a half years.
- Unemployment at 5.6% is around a two-and-a-half year low.
- The CBA’s look at economy-wide sales is at a six-year high.
- Capital city home prices rose by 1% in September and are 7.1% higher over the year.
- Total household wealth at a record $8,891.2 billion as at end of June 2016, up $231.5 billion or 2.7% over the quarter and CommSec estimates wealth rose $368,945 in the June quarter, up $8,895 over the quarter and a record!
Hannah Schuhmann, Principal of HS Brisbane Property, says Switzer is right in that much of the negativity linked to apartment oversupply is simply media hype.
“If you look at the current economy, the fundamentals are strong!” said Schuhmann.
“Our economy is the strongest it has been in a long while and if it continues along this path, it is a good indication that the Brisbane property market is set to shine in the next five years.”
So, in the end, it seems that the facts win out over media hearsay. With the economy going great guns and only set to get better and better, maybe it is time we ignore the media circus and listen to the facts - which indicate nothing but positive signs for a strong economic future for Brisbane.
If like Switzer and Schuhmann you are excited about the future of Brisbane’s economy, then it might be a great time to discuss what current real estate opportunities are on offer here in the Brisbane CBD. For more information, contact Hannah and the team at HSBP on 0419 782 133.